D&D 5e Expert NPCs

I know a lot people did not like the D&D 3.x/PF NPC classes. I can understand why. Like a lot of things in D&D 3.x/PF it takes time to create them. But in certain situations I found some of them useful. The commoner and aristocrat I never used. I think I used an adept once. The expert and warrior I used quite a bit. I used warrior for veteran guards or military officers but didn't want all the extra baggage of a fighter. And I used the expert usually for artisan & craft people. An experienced weapon smith should be better at crafting a sword than the vast majority of PCs. 

D&D 5e has sample NPCs that could be modified and used in the role formerly handled by adepts and warriors. However, the closest thing to an expert is the commoner which has no proficiency bonus.

I want an NPC to have various levels of expertise in different skills/tools. So I'll be assigning one or more proficiency bonuses to one or more skills/tools for certain NPC to represent their expertise. I have three methods I'm playing around with.

Notes:

• This is an alpha version. More just writing down my thoughts on possibilities.
• These are only for non-weapon proficiencies. Maybe even crafting only.
• For crafting, this only applies to non-magical items. Avarin the world renown armorer could create you the most ornate & well crafted suit of plate*. But he's probably not going to be able to create a +1 magic chain.

*GM could rule that the armor has some minor benefits. Ex: lighter weight, quicker to don and doff the armor. 

Method 1

Just pick the bonus(es) for specific skills/tools. Simple and to the point.

However, I wanted to have a method that has some randomness and another that is completely random.

Method 2

In this method each NPC gets a random number of Expertise Points (EP) that are used to purchase proficiency bonuses for individual skills/tools. That's the random part. The non-random part is I decide how to spend those points.

First I need to know the size of the settlement the NPC is generally located or based. My thinking is the larger the settlement the more likely it would have more skilled individuals. The DMG divides settlement size into three categories. I prefer to have more granularity. So I'm using the Pathfinder categorization scheme. The size determines which dice to roll to find the number of EPs for that NPC.

Settlement Size Table

Settlement Size	Population Range	Expertise Points of NPC	Max Prof Bonus
Thorp	Fewer than 20	2d4	+4
Hamlet	21–60	d6 + d4	+4
Village	61–200	2d6	+5
Small town	201–2,000	2d8	+6
Large town	2,001–5,000	2d10	+6
Small city	5,001–10,000	2d12	+8
Large city	10,001–25,000	d20 +d12	+9
Metropolis	More than 25,000	2d20	+10

The Proficiency Bonus Cost Table

Prof Bonus	EP Cost
0	0
1	1
2	2
3	4
4	6
5	9
6	12
7	16
8	21
9	27
10	35

Yes, I'm well aware that a 20th level character only has a proficiency bonus of +6. But I want to be able to have world renown artisan that would outclass any PC in his given profession.

Spreadsheet for managing proficiency bonus purchasing.

Method 3

Again, first I need to know the settlement size. Based on the size find the Settlement Modifier. Pick a skill or tool, starting with one the NPC is most likely to have. Roll a d100 and a d20, adding the Settlement Modifier only to the d100.

Settlement Size Table

Settlement Size	Population Range	Settlement Modifier	Exceptional Die
Thorp	Fewer than 20	-40	-
Hamlet	21–60	-30	-
Village	61–200	-20	-
Small town	201–2,000	-10	-
Large town	2,001–5,000	0	-
Small city	5,001–10,000	+5	d8
Large city	10,001–25,000	+10	d10
Metropolis	More than 25,000	+15	d12

Find the modified d100 roll in the first column of the Proficiency Bonus Table. The corresponding second column is the proficiency bonus for the given skill. Should the modified d100 roll be greater than 100, then roll the dice from column four of the Settlement Size table. Look up that value on the Exceptional table.
Next determine if the NPC has another skill. Find the same d100 rolled before but without the modifier in third column. If the d20 fall within the range given in the fourth column, then the NPC has another bonus for another skill/tool. Choose the next most important skill/tool and repeat.

The Proficiency Bonus Table

d100 + Settlement Modifier	Proficiency Bonus	Unmodified d100	Has another skill? d20
<= 15	+1	<= 15	1-17
11-35	+2	11-35	1-14
26-50	+3	26-50	1-8
51-74	+4	51-74	1-6
75-89	+5	75-89	1-3
90-100	+6	90-100	1-2
>= 101	roll on Exceptional table	>= 101	1

Exceptional Table

Exceptional Die Roll	Proficiency Bonus
1-7	7
8-9	8
10-11	9
12	10

Of course it is quite possible to roll a virtually useless NPC, in that case re-roll or just add proficiency bonus using Method 1.

Analysis of Method 2 vs Method 3

If you're expecting methods 2 and 3 to create similar results, you'll be disappointed. You'll probably be less likely to get an NPC with an exceptionally high proficiency bonus.